2008年12月25日 星期四
Christmas
Today is x'mas. It seems people have calmed down a bit recently. HSI has gone back to 14000-15000. If one buy at 11000, it's already a 30% gain. People now generally believe in CASH IS KING. I think cash is king only if it can buy cheap assets. My only problem is I might be buying too slow. Hopefully, when the next bull come, I will be retiring. My friend asked me, what if the nxt bull never come, just like Japan, I said, ' then make sure what you buy have reasonable yield return and won't go into bankruptcy. Then you can just live on the yield return. When economy is really that bad, inflation will be remote and you probably don't need a lot of money for retirement anyway . So there won't be any problem if your stock doesn't grow. " " Then why should I invest at all?" " Because you never know, if you lose money, you can only lose 100% of the money. If market goes up, it can be 200% 300% etc. Isn't it a good bet?"
2008年10月27日 星期一
Freefall
The stock market is undergoing a freefall recently. There is really no bottom. Today HSI is ~ 11000. For eg. HSBC closed at 75 only with PE 5.8 and yield of 9.3 %. The latest bad news is HSBC is going to reduce its interest yield by half. I don't quite understand if the yield reduce by half, it is still 4.65% isn't it good enough? The other bad news is the emerging markets are collapsing. I am not saying that HSBC should be immuned but I think the market has become quite irrational and uncontrollable now. I think very soon, some headlines like "STOCK IS DEAD" will come up. What I learn is that fund managers are totally useless human beings because what they are doing exactly is to sell cheap and buy high. I still think the best fund is tracker fund if one want to buy HK stock, if one think that HK will not die this time.
2008年9月22日 星期一
Lehman Minibonds
After the bankkruptcy of lehman brothers a week ago, the financial sector has gone into hell. Even AIG is at the verge of collapse. The horrible thing is lehman brothers has been selling out the toxic CDO as minibonds in HK till Aug 2008 and the victims, some even retiree, lost billions.
I must be lucky because I have been buying these "minibonds" for attractive bonus since 2003. Actually I bought the last batch in 2006, and I sold them out in Jan 2008.
Why do I sold it out in Jan 2008? It is because the Lehman brothers were still selling out the minibonds in Jan 08 with big ads everywhere. I read the small print of the ads " the CDO involved are not subprimed related etc" this is really 此地無銀，so I digged out the information booklet and read carefully and found out the word CDO everywhere, with my limited knowledge I know CDO is something bad, so I sold out all my minibonds in Jan 08 with net profit.
Actually I have bought US mortgage-back securities (MBS) too back in 2003. And I sold it out in 2004 luckily again. At the time it was promoted as something very secure with high interest rate, and the track record was a straight upside for > 10 years. Then I noticed a drop at the end of 2003 by 4%. The issuers immediately reassured that the refinancing activities caused the transient hiccup and it would pick up its uptrend soon. I went to the bookstore and searched through these MBS. After reading the whole paragraph, I had no idea of what it was talking about. But only the last sentence caught my eyes " during market downturn, it will fall quickder than bonds etc". So I sold the MBS out next day and made a 4% lost.
I also bought a lot of ELI and ELN (most issued by these big names of investment bank) in the past few years and have made fairly good profit. But I ceased to buy the structural products since 2008 because I think the stocks are becoming cheap and I should save the bullets for cheap stock.
Alas, so I escape from this structural product crises luckily. I put this down as a lesson for myself because I worry that I might not be that lucky again next time.
I must be lucky because I have been buying these "minibonds" for attractive bonus since 2003. Actually I bought the last batch in 2006, and I sold them out in Jan 2008.
Why do I sold it out in Jan 2008? It is because the Lehman brothers were still selling out the minibonds in Jan 08 with big ads everywhere. I read the small print of the ads " the CDO involved are not subprimed related etc" this is really 此地無銀，so I digged out the information booklet and read carefully and found out the word CDO everywhere, with my limited knowledge I know CDO is something bad, so I sold out all my minibonds in Jan 08 with net profit.
Actually I have bought US mortgage-back securities (MBS) too back in 2003. And I sold it out in 2004 luckily again. At the time it was promoted as something very secure with high interest rate, and the track record was a straight upside for > 10 years. Then I noticed a drop at the end of 2003 by 4%. The issuers immediately reassured that the refinancing activities caused the transient hiccup and it would pick up its uptrend soon. I went to the bookstore and searched through these MBS. After reading the whole paragraph, I had no idea of what it was talking about. But only the last sentence caught my eyes " during market downturn, it will fall quickder than bonds etc". So I sold the MBS out next day and made a 4% lost.
I also bought a lot of ELI and ELN (most issued by these big names of investment bank) in the past few years and have made fairly good profit. But I ceased to buy the structural products since 2008 because I think the stocks are becoming cheap and I should save the bullets for cheap stock.
Alas, so I escape from this structural product crises luckily. I put this down as a lesson for myself because I worry that I might not be that lucky again next time.
2008年9月14日 星期日
Shall I start to buy some stock now ?
My friend asked me whether he should start to buy some stock now? He has been asking the same question for the last two months and he thought he was lucky since he hadn't bought anything yet and the market keeps falling now. Normally I won't give any investment advice because I don't believe anyone can time the market. Imagine if everyone think that the bottom of HSI is 16000, but when it reaches 16000, alas, then 911 happens, say, this time in China, then China need to fight a war with someone, etc & etc, HSI will still plummet further. There are so many unpredictables in life and there is no way to guess.
But I told my friend, you can just buy whenever you feel like to buy.
My friend asked," what if next month the price become even lower?" I said. "then you can buy again. Imagine you are now buying a 1000 ft house, you can buy one ft by one ft according to the market price, and it's really a nice house, and you really need a 1000 ft house before you retire, will you just buy one ft now?" Remember to buy one feet by one feet, not the whole 1000 ft altogether.
I use this example for him because my friend has just bought an over 15M flat without a second thought, and never asked around what if next month, the property price goes down?
But I told my friend, you can just buy whenever you feel like to buy.
My friend asked," what if next month the price become even lower?" I said. "then you can buy again. Imagine you are now buying a 1000 ft house, you can buy one ft by one ft according to the market price, and it's really a nice house, and you really need a 1000 ft house before you retire, will you just buy one ft now?" Remember to buy one feet by one feet, not the whole 1000 ft altogether.
I use this example for him because my friend has just bought an over 15M flat without a second thought, and never asked around what if next month, the property price goes down?
2008年9月1日 星期一
Good old friend
Today I meet M on the facebook. She is a good old friend of mine and we were classmates since secondary school and in university. Then M took a different path, she emigrated to Australia, now become a consultant in education, and mother of a lovely baby girl.
We are both very busy and we didn't meet up very often. All I know is she is happy now and she has married a good husband with a cute daughter and that is all enough.
And she sent me this quotation from Kung Fu Panda,
'Yesterday was history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift, that's why it's called Present'.
And I wish M all the best and she will be happy forever and ever.
We are both very busy and we didn't meet up very often. All I know is she is happy now and she has married a good husband with a cute daughter and that is all enough.
And she sent me this quotation from Kung Fu Panda,
'Yesterday was history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift, that's why it's called Present'.
And I wish M all the best and she will be happy forever and ever.
2008年8月21日 星期四
Change my house
I bought my first house in Laguna City in 96, then I changed it to the present location in 1998. (I think it's a right decision, not just from investment point of view, but also from quality of life aspect).
Now it's 2008, I changed my house again, actually I bought the other block, with higher floor zone, better layout and bigger size, and I just sold my old flat and the discovery bay flat. I always treat a self occupant flat like a car (a consumable), therefore during the price fall in the past, I didn't feel bad at all. And to my surprise, it goes back to the original price now. So I believe even if the market falls again this time, my new flat will go back to the original price again in the future, just like HSBC.
From investment point of view, I still think stock is a more suitable tool for me, trading property is so exhausted, the only good thing is the leverage at low cost. So I use the leverage to get a better place to live, and will continue to accumulate stocks. The most important thing is to make sure that the mortgage installment will not affect the cashflow, then one can really forget the purchase price for awhile and enjoy the new home.
Remember, life is short.
Now it's 2008, I changed my house again, actually I bought the other block, with higher floor zone, better layout and bigger size, and I just sold my old flat and the discovery bay flat. I always treat a self occupant flat like a car (a consumable), therefore during the price fall in the past, I didn't feel bad at all. And to my surprise, it goes back to the original price now. So I believe even if the market falls again this time, my new flat will go back to the original price again in the future, just like HSBC.
From investment point of view, I still think stock is a more suitable tool for me, trading property is so exhausted, the only good thing is the leverage at low cost. So I use the leverage to get a better place to live, and will continue to accumulate stocks. The most important thing is to make sure that the mortgage installment will not affect the cashflow, then one can really forget the purchase price for awhile and enjoy the new home.
Remember, life is short.
2008年7月25日 星期五
To remind myself
I just dropped in a few notes to remind myself today. If I think I have missed 1998-2003 chance to reap up assets, I shouldn't missed this one. I cannot tell if it is now 1998 or 2003, or just 1995-6, but I will continue my "accumulation" process no matter what happens. One of my favorite is still finance/insurance sector. Although people said it will take ages for them to recover, I think the longer it is, the more time I will have to accumulate the stocks. Some people even said they are NOT GOING TO RECOVER, just like Japan. I don't really mind, say, if one day, I find out that I can just survive on the interest income from the stock alone, moreover I have the patience to wait...
2008年7月17日 星期四
悲觀情緒指數
蘋果日報
2008-07-18
大 劉 猛 將 燒 炭 死 炒 股 票 欠 債 千 萬
【 本 報 訊 】 城 中 名 人 劉 鑾 雄 （ 大 劉 ） 的 手 下 猛 將 、 在 華 人 置 業 集 團 （ 0127 ） 售 樓 部 當 銷 售 經 理 的 任 建 華 ， 疑 因 個 人 在 股 市 投 資 失 利 ， 炒 股 票 及 拖 欠 卡 數 共 欠 債 近 千 萬 元 ， 加 上 不 堪 工 作 壓 力 ， 在 走 投 無 路 下 終 走 上 絕 路 ， 昨 晨 被 發 現 在 淺 水 灣 海 灘 道 自 己 的 紅 色 寶 馬 座 駕 內 燒 炭 自 殺 死 亡 。 地 產 界 人 士 形 容 任 建 華 平 日 工 作 認 真 及 拼 搏 ， 對 他 自 殺 感 到 惋 惜 和 震 驚 。
Recent investment atmosphere is really bad, started with 兩房事件，then one bad news followed by 2 bad news, it's almost the end of the world. However, I still feel something is missing. Today when I saw this headline, I know what was being missed. No one can tell if it is the bottom yet, but I can tell that the 悲觀情緒指數 is really new high now. Under adverse investment condition, the most important thing is to maintain your EQ， however 講容易過做很多，emotion is always infectious.
2008-07-18
大 劉 猛 將 燒 炭 死 炒 股 票 欠 債 千 萬
【 本 報 訊 】 城 中 名 人 劉 鑾 雄 （ 大 劉 ） 的 手 下 猛 將 、 在 華 人 置 業 集 團 （ 0127 ） 售 樓 部 當 銷 售 經 理 的 任 建 華 ， 疑 因 個 人 在 股 市 投 資 失 利 ， 炒 股 票 及 拖 欠 卡 數 共 欠 債 近 千 萬 元 ， 加 上 不 堪 工 作 壓 力 ， 在 走 投 無 路 下 終 走 上 絕 路 ， 昨 晨 被 發 現 在 淺 水 灣 海 灘 道 自 己 的 紅 色 寶 馬 座 駕 內 燒 炭 自 殺 死 亡 。 地 產 界 人 士 形 容 任 建 華 平 日 工 作 認 真 及 拼 搏 ， 對 他 自 殺 感 到 惋 惜 和 震 驚 。
Recent investment atmosphere is really bad, started with 兩房事件，then one bad news followed by 2 bad news, it's almost the end of the world. However, I still feel something is missing. Today when I saw this headline, I know what was being missed. No one can tell if it is the bottom yet, but I can tell that the 悲觀情緒指數 is really new high now. Under adverse investment condition, the most important thing is to maintain your EQ， however 講容易過做很多，emotion is always infectious.
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