Have a chat with my friend S whose son is sitting for HKCEE now. Both S and her husband are doctors. She said her son does not want to be a doctor because "he does not want to go on the same route as his parents". S looked a bit worried because she said, what is he going to do then, the road could be bumpy.
Actually I 100% support his son's decision. To someone with a sound family back up, I mean financially, one really should have the priviledge to choose his career according to one own interest, rather than just for the purpose of fullfilling the expection of the parents and the society.
Sometimes you choose something for your son cause you think it is the best for him, but deep down, is it just for the best of yourself?
2009年5月19日 星期二
Stress test
I have lost track of my own blog since I changed the computer.
Anyway the HSI has gone up to >17000 now and suddenly people become more optimisstic now.
BTW one of the "wealth manager" called me today to catch up and to review the coming investment strategy. I don't think he is going to offer me any good suggestions if he had not suggest me to buy during the end of last year. After all these, my conclusion is all the fund managers and wealth managers are no better than me.
I think the Tsunami offers a very good stress test for my investment, both performance wise and psychological wise, not a bad thing indeed.
Anyway the HSI has gone up to >17000 now and suddenly people become more optimisstic now.
BTW one of the "wealth manager" called me today to catch up and to review the coming investment strategy. I don't think he is going to offer me any good suggestions if he had not suggest me to buy during the end of last year. After all these, my conclusion is all the fund managers and wealth managers are no better than me.
I think the Tsunami offers a very good stress test for my investment, both performance wise and psychological wise, not a bad thing indeed.
2009年3月11日 星期三
HSBC
I should at least write something about HSBC now because this could be the historical moment. Since HSBC released its annual report and announced the issues of right on 2 MAR 09, it's price plummet from 56 to 38 in 1 wk. Well, I am not a diligent person and I don't bother to read the annual report. I have no idea what will happen to HSBC in near future but if AIG and citicorp can go into deep shit, I think anyone with connection to the US directly can follow suit too. The lesson to learn is : nothing is evergreen and anything can fall, and never put all the eggs into one basket.
Fortunately I used to be so conservative that even with HSBC (which is equivalent to cash in the past), I only allocated 10% of my total assets into it. Anyway, I sold half of the HSBC shares for my own psychological benefit and it has become an insignificant portion of my assets now. I didn't sell all of it because if everyone drop the spectacles and the price shoots up, I will be happier.
I knew someone who have bought HSBC with 50% or more of their assets and they are really in headache now. These are usually very conservative people and some even plan for retirement soon. I hope they will be fine.
Now people start to switch their mind and claim that property is the better kind of asset since one can still live inside or collect rental when the price falls (I remember they said the opposite during 04-07). To certain extent I still think buying an affordable house for self living is always a good decision when you consider the enjoyment it attached, which sometimes cannot be measured by dollar sign alone.
Fortunately I used to be so conservative that even with HSBC (which is equivalent to cash in the past), I only allocated 10% of my total assets into it. Anyway, I sold half of the HSBC shares for my own psychological benefit and it has become an insignificant portion of my assets now. I didn't sell all of it because if everyone drop the spectacles and the price shoots up, I will be happier.
I knew someone who have bought HSBC with 50% or more of their assets and they are really in headache now. These are usually very conservative people and some even plan for retirement soon. I hope they will be fine.
Now people start to switch their mind and claim that property is the better kind of asset since one can still live inside or collect rental when the price falls (I remember they said the opposite during 04-07). To certain extent I still think buying an affordable house for self living is always a good decision when you consider the enjoyment it attached, which sometimes cannot be measured by dollar sign alone.
2009年1月22日 星期四
Sixteen things
Actually I found myself very lazy in updating the blog and I think I should try to put down something. Perhaps I should imitate Szeto in putting down 16 things about myself (BTW, why 16?)
1. I am actually a very lazy person (I call it energy-reserving approach)
2. I only start to work on the day before deadline (therefore if you want me to do something, you must give me a deadline).
3. My first inspiration in primary school was the introduction of "compound interests" in maths class, the concept just opened up my mind.
4. My second biggest inspiration in medical school was when I was told the author of “the oxford handbook of medicine” has made a good living from it and then lived happily forever by practicing in a small village.
5. My student years were mostly spent up in “chatting in classes” or “day-dreaming in classes”. This has nothing to do with my teachers, it was due to point 6.
6. I have attention-concentration-deficit problem and my mind always start wandering whenever anyone start lecturing for few minutes, but nobody will notice it.
7. Point 6 not only applied to sitting in classes and lectures, it also applied to attendances of meetings, hence I cannot become a good administrator.
8. I got 8As in my HKCEE exam, my proudest subject to get A ever is Chinese literature.
9. When I was young, I was allergic to crab and shrimp, but I would secretly took a piriton before taking the delicacy. I successfully desensitize myself and crab is my most favorite food now.
10. I am probably autistic (at least trait) and it get cured after I went to UK for elective training in 2000.
11. I also got space orientation deficit. I cannot recognize a single route even after going through the same route for > 20 times.
12. I start to eat with chopstick when I was 12 years old, I still have problems with the chopsticks now.
13. My friends said I am ataxic, my mom said “my hands worked like the feet”. I have to confess that I just damaged 2 pieces of furniture after I moved in my new house and recently the handle of my friend's fridge.
14. I don't bother to do the IQ test now, because I think I am demented now.
15. I have accepted the fact that my hair is hopeless, but my the other half haven't quite yet and he always force me to attend the hair salon.
16. I consider myself quite a lucky person, hope it will be forever.
1. I am actually a very lazy person (I call it energy-reserving approach)
2. I only start to work on the day before deadline (therefore if you want me to do something, you must give me a deadline).
3. My first inspiration in primary school was the introduction of "compound interests" in maths class, the concept just opened up my mind.
4. My second biggest inspiration in medical school was when I was told the author of “the oxford handbook of medicine” has made a good living from it and then lived happily forever by practicing in a small village.
5. My student years were mostly spent up in “chatting in classes” or “day-dreaming in classes”. This has nothing to do with my teachers, it was due to point 6.
6. I have attention-concentration-deficit problem and my mind always start wandering whenever anyone start lecturing for few minutes, but nobody will notice it.
7. Point 6 not only applied to sitting in classes and lectures, it also applied to attendances of meetings, hence I cannot become a good administrator.
8. I got 8As in my HKCEE exam, my proudest subject to get A ever is Chinese literature.
9. When I was young, I was allergic to crab and shrimp, but I would secretly took a piriton before taking the delicacy. I successfully desensitize myself and crab is my most favorite food now.
10. I am probably autistic (at least trait) and it get cured after I went to UK for elective training in 2000.
11. I also got space orientation deficit. I cannot recognize a single route even after going through the same route for > 20 times.
12. I start to eat with chopstick when I was 12 years old, I still have problems with the chopsticks now.
13. My friends said I am ataxic, my mom said “my hands worked like the feet”. I have to confess that I just damaged 2 pieces of furniture after I moved in my new house and recently the handle of my friend's fridge.
14. I don't bother to do the IQ test now, because I think I am demented now.
15. I have accepted the fact that my hair is hopeless, but my the other half haven't quite yet and he always force me to attend the hair salon.
16. I consider myself quite a lucky person, hope it will be forever.
2008年12月25日 星期四
Christmas
Today is x'mas. It seems people have calmed down a bit recently. HSI has gone back to 14000-15000. If one buy at 11000, it's already a 30% gain. People now generally believe in CASH IS KING. I think cash is king only if it can buy cheap assets. My only problem is I might be buying too slow. Hopefully, when the next bull come, I will be retiring. My friend asked me, what if the nxt bull never come, just like Japan, I said, ' then make sure what you buy have reasonable yield return and won't go into bankruptcy. Then you can just live on the yield return. When economy is really that bad, inflation will be remote and you probably don't need a lot of money for retirement anyway . So there won't be any problem if your stock doesn't grow. " " Then why should I invest at all?" " Because you never know, if you lose money, you can only lose 100% of the money. If market goes up, it can be 200% 300% etc. Isn't it a good bet?"
2008年10月27日 星期一
Freefall
The stock market is undergoing a freefall recently. There is really no bottom. Today HSI is ~ 11000. For eg. HSBC closed at 75 only with PE 5.8 and yield of 9.3 %. The latest bad news is HSBC is going to reduce its interest yield by half. I don't quite understand if the yield reduce by half, it is still 4.65% isn't it good enough? The other bad news is the emerging markets are collapsing. I am not saying that HSBC should be immuned but I think the market has become quite irrational and uncontrollable now. I think very soon, some headlines like "STOCK IS DEAD" will come up. What I learn is that fund managers are totally useless human beings because what they are doing exactly is to sell cheap and buy high. I still think the best fund is tracker fund if one want to buy HK stock, if one think that HK will not die this time.
2008年9月22日 星期一
Lehman Minibonds
After the bankkruptcy of lehman brothers a week ago, the financial sector has gone into hell. Even AIG is at the verge of collapse. The horrible thing is lehman brothers has been selling out the toxic CDO as minibonds in HK till Aug 2008 and the victims, some even retiree, lost billions.
I must be lucky because I have been buying these "minibonds" for attractive bonus since 2003. Actually I bought the last batch in 2006, and I sold them out in Jan 2008.
Why do I sold it out in Jan 2008? It is because the Lehman brothers were still selling out the minibonds in Jan 08 with big ads everywhere. I read the small print of the ads " the CDO involved are not subprimed related etc" this is really 此地無銀，so I digged out the information booklet and read carefully and found out the word CDO everywhere, with my limited knowledge I know CDO is something bad, so I sold out all my minibonds in Jan 08 with net profit.
Actually I have bought US mortgage-back securities (MBS) too back in 2003. And I sold it out in 2004 luckily again. At the time it was promoted as something very secure with high interest rate, and the track record was a straight upside for > 10 years. Then I noticed a drop at the end of 2003 by 4%. The issuers immediately reassured that the refinancing activities caused the transient hiccup and it would pick up its uptrend soon. I went to the bookstore and searched through these MBS. After reading the whole paragraph, I had no idea of what it was talking about. But only the last sentence caught my eyes " during market downturn, it will fall quickder than bonds etc". So I sold the MBS out next day and made a 4% lost.
I also bought a lot of ELI and ELN (most issued by these big names of investment bank) in the past few years and have made fairly good profit. But I ceased to buy the structural products since 2008 because I think the stocks are becoming cheap and I should save the bullets for cheap stock.
Alas, so I escape from this structural product crises luckily. I put this down as a lesson for myself because I worry that I might not be that lucky again next time.
I must be lucky because I have been buying these "minibonds" for attractive bonus since 2003. Actually I bought the last batch in 2006, and I sold them out in Jan 2008.
Why do I sold it out in Jan 2008? It is because the Lehman brothers were still selling out the minibonds in Jan 08 with big ads everywhere. I read the small print of the ads " the CDO involved are not subprimed related etc" this is really 此地無銀，so I digged out the information booklet and read carefully and found out the word CDO everywhere, with my limited knowledge I know CDO is something bad, so I sold out all my minibonds in Jan 08 with net profit.
Actually I have bought US mortgage-back securities (MBS) too back in 2003. And I sold it out in 2004 luckily again. At the time it was promoted as something very secure with high interest rate, and the track record was a straight upside for > 10 years. Then I noticed a drop at the end of 2003 by 4%. The issuers immediately reassured that the refinancing activities caused the transient hiccup and it would pick up its uptrend soon. I went to the bookstore and searched through these MBS. After reading the whole paragraph, I had no idea of what it was talking about. But only the last sentence caught my eyes " during market downturn, it will fall quickder than bonds etc". So I sold the MBS out next day and made a 4% lost.
I also bought a lot of ELI and ELN (most issued by these big names of investment bank) in the past few years and have made fairly good profit. But I ceased to buy the structural products since 2008 because I think the stocks are becoming cheap and I should save the bullets for cheap stock.
Alas, so I escape from this structural product crises luckily. I put this down as a lesson for myself because I worry that I might not be that lucky again next time.
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